THE WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A US-CHINA TRADE WAR

As China and the United States ramp up trade tensions, the list of losers appears to far outweigh the winners. On Wednesday, the US announced it would impose 25 per cent duties on $50 billion worth of imports from China.

China quickly retaliated by listing $50 billion worth of products that it could hit with its own 25 per cent tariffs. That followed a separate announcement from Beijing that it would impose import duties on $3 billion worth of US goods in response to the Trump Administration's duties on all steel and aluminium imports, including from China.

It has fueled fears of a protracted trade war, something which former Treasury Department official Christine McDaniel points out could be bad news for everyone: "If these tariff threats escalate and actually materialise then it's not only going to be a lose-lose for China and the United States. It will be a lose, lose, lose. China, the United States and the world economy," she said.
Here are some of the US companies and sectors that may be better or worse off because of the tariffs.

1. Car Companies

Photo: Cars and motorcycles are among the list of imports to be hit by the tariffs. (Reuters: File)

China announced plans to impose tariffs on most passenger vehicles.
That would have a significant impact on America's car industry — including major car manufacturers General Motors, Ford Motor Co and electric car maker Tesla Inc, which depends on China for 17 per cent of its revenue. GM has urged the two countries to engage in constructive dialogue over trade, while Ford encouraged both governments to work together to resolve issues.

2. US Consumers
Ms McDaniel believes the tariffs Mr Trump has imposed on Chinese goods coming in the US will not "change China's ways". "US consumers have more to lose than Chinese consumers here," she said.
"[Consumers] are much more reliant on imports than Chinese consumers. So we'll see that inflation. We'll see in, you know, consumer goods."

3. Boeing and Industrial s
The Chinese list of goods that will be hit with a 25 per cent tariff also included aircraft up to 45 tonnes in weight. Documents from China's Ministry of Commerce and aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co showed the move would affect some older Boeing narrow-body models.

It was not immediately clear how much the tariffs would impact its newer aircraft. The company already saw its shares fall as a result, along with fellow manufacturing company 3M. Boeing said it was assessing the situation while analysts from JP Morgan said the proposals from China looked to have been calibrated carefully to avoid a major impact on the plane maker.

4. Tech companies tied with China
China's position as an assembly hub for electronic devices makes it the biggest consumer of semi-conductors. It also means the US technology sector will not escape unscathed from a potential trade war, especially companies that have Chinese factories. Currently, that includes tech giant Apple, which would face higher supply costs as a result of the tariffs.

5. Whiskey

It was the only spirit China signalled out for more tariffs.

Why just whiskey?

The Distilled Spirits Council said US whiskey accounted for nearly 70 per cent of the total US spirits exported to China, by value, in 2017. The council asked the US and China to reach a resolution without subjecting US whiskey to more tariffs which it said would harm Chinese consumers, its hospitality sector and US whiskey exporters.

6. US farmers and chemical makers

Particularly those that sell soybeans.

DowDuPont Inc (one of the world's largest chemical companies) said its agriculture unit could be affected by the escalating conflict, warning about price declines for soybeans. Grain traders Archer Daniels Midland Co and Bunge Ltd, both of which trade US soybeans in China, are also expected to cop a hit.

Farming equipment maker Deere has seen its shares drop by nearly $10 as this dispute has escalated and it has urged the US and China to "limit uncertainty for farmers and avoid meaningful disruptions to agricultural trade".

The American Chemistry Council (ACC) — which counts Exxon , Chevron, Monsanto and others as its members — urged the United States and China to come to an understanding.

"Engaging in a trade war with one of our country's most significant trading partners is not the answer," ACC Chief Executive Officer Cal Dooley said.

The Winners

1. Meat processors

While the price of soybeans going down is bad news for farmers, US meat processors and exporters have been given a boost. The new tariffs mean that feedstock soybeans will be cheaper.

US meat processor Tyson Foods Inc and meat exporter Hormel Foods Corp saw their share prices rise on the news of the tariffs.

2. Chinese consumers

Tu Xinquan, director of WTO studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing said China has been very careful in picking US products that can be replaced. "China has made meticulous efforts in deciding the list of the products to make sure the impact on China's economy is controllable," he said.

ABC NEWS